Democrats will not defect if Clinton is the nominee
Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:40:01 AM PDT
Nancynj posted a diary which is currently in the rec list accusing Obama's supporters of defecting to McCain if he is the nominee.
What Obama said is that some of his supporters might not vote Democratic if he is not the nominee. He didn't say those voters were self-identified Democrats in the first place. Nancynj obviously read too much into his statement.
The truth is Obama has gotten a huge amount of support from independent voters and even a good number of Republicans.
In CNN exit polling from New Hampshire (a primary won by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.), independents favored Obama over Clinton 41 percent to 31 percent. In South Carolina Obama out-polled Clinton 42 percent to 32 percent among independents.
The simple fact here is that many of these people voting for Obama as independents would not have voted for any other Democrat. The point to be made is not that Obama's supporters are going to bail if Hillary is the nominee, it is that he is bring a whole new group of people to the party who simply aren't similarly inspired by Hillary.
All of Obama's voters who self identify as Democrats will clearly support Hillary if she is the nominee. I have many reasons for not liking her, but I'll work for her in the general just like I did for Kerry. Was I happy? No, but I care more about defeating the GOP than petty bitterness. Anyone who suggest that those Obama supporters would "defect" is being downright disingenuous.
His independent/Republican supporters may split, with some going Hillary but I suspect a lot more will be going to McCain (who has much more appeal among independents than Hillary does), or just sitting home. That's a simple statement of fact and I don't see any evidence that Hillary has ever been able to pull those kinds of voters the way Obama has. I could see Republicans splitting their ticket for Obama (they have in Illinois), but I really can't see many of them doing that for Hillary.
So in short, don't trash Obama or his supporters because he has wider appeal. You'll never broaden your own by doing that.
